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Understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy

09/04/2025 | Categories: Casino Blog - News & Tips | Published by: Mary Henderson
Gambler's Fallacy

Ever found yourself at a slot game, watching those reels spin and thinking, “It’s been several losses in a row, a big win’s gotta hit soon!”

You’re not alone. This is a classic trap known as the Gambler’s Fallacy – the mistaken idea that past events (even random) can influence future ones.

As someone who’s seen countless players fall into this trap, I’m gonna share today some insights on what the Gambler’s Fallacy actually is, how it messes with your head, real-life examples from the casino floor, plus insider tips and tricks to keep your mind clear even when the temptation is unreal.

Grab a cuppa and get comfy! It’s about to get interesting, busting those myths.

Gambler’s Fallacy Debunked: Your Worst Enemy

If you’re a regular on my blog, you’ve probably noticed that almost all my tips on online gambling end with “Don’t chase losses and don’t fall for the Gambler’s Fallacy.” What exactly is this Gambler’s Fallacy?

In a few words? A sneaky little bias that will mess with your head and lead to poor decision making. That’s if you’re not careful enough.

Simply put, Gambler’s Fallacy is a mistaken belief that past game outcomes can somehow influence future results, even if it’s an RNG game powered by a random number generator, meaning the game outcomes are 100% random.

To make it clear, picture flipping a coin and it lands on heads five times in a row. I know what you may probably think: “Tails due next!” In reality, the next flip, as much as the previous one, is fully independent, with a 50/50 chance every time. The same goes for casino games, whether land-based or online.

See, casino games have no memory, and they don’t owe you a win just because several losses occurred in a row. Got it?

Why Do We Fall for the Gambler’s Fallacy?

Gamblers fallacy russian roulette

Do you think if a roulette wheel lands on black a bunch of times in a row, red will hit soon? It may, but it may not. That’s a trap. The question is: How and why do we fall for it?

Even knowing about the Gambler’s Fallacy, it’s pretty easy to get played by your own mind, and you won’t even notice. But if you understand how it works, you might regain control next time.

Here’s a lowdown:

Pattern Recognition

Whether you want it or not, our brains are always trying to spot patterns. It’s something pretty natural. Back in the day, it was quite a survival mechanism, but in random events like gambling, the same instinct can mislead us. We see streaks, and our next thought is: “A change is due!” when it’s not.

Desire for Balance

I’d rather call it fairness. You cannot help it, but you do have this mindset that things should balance out, right? After a string of losses, it feels fair for a win to land. And you have every right to think so, but randomness doesn’t know or play by such rules.

Illusionary Control

That’s a good one. Especially in casino games, we tend to think that our decisions can influence future outcomes. We don’t even notice that, but we get the sense of false control over random events only because we get to decide, say, what numbers to choose in the lottery.

You think I’m out here playing it all smart and telling you how to do it right while I never fall for the tiniest slice of this trap? Nope. I’m human, too.

I can still remember when I used to hit the local casino back in the day, way before turning into a croupier (FYI, I already turned digital). Roulette was my thing. This one time, I’m parked at the table and notice that red has come up way too many times in a row. To be precise – eight times. And I’m sitting there thinking: “It’s gotta be black next time.”

Guess what? Rookie mistake.

There’s more – I went on with black cuz there’s no way it’s gonna be red again. Yep, I ended up doubling down, literally chasing losses, and it still landed on red. But now I know better.

Tricks to Keep Your Head in the Game

As you can see, it takes nothing to fall for the Gambler’s Fallacy, but it takes a lot to regain control in the game. Unless you know the right tricks. Read on!

Recognize the Fallacy. First off, understand that each event is independent – past outcomes don’t affect future ones.

Set realistic limits. You never know what the future outcome will be, so better to set a budget in advance and stick to it. This way, you know you won’t lose more than you can afford.

Familiarize yourself with the game. The more you know about the game’s return rates and odds, the better you’ll plan your next move.

Take regular breaks. Really. You cannot imagine how helpful breaks are when you need to clear your mind or when you feel that emotions get in your way. Grab a coffee, mate. Take a breath and come back.

Stay calm. No kidding. If you cannot help it and feel frustrated, it’s better to walk away. Take it from someone who’s been in these shoes.

Wrap-Up: Why Should You Care About Gambler’s Fallacy?

Look, you may fall for this trap and not even notice this, but we all know that the Gambler’s Fallacy can lead to poor decisions and unnecessary losses.

Take slot games, for instance. Each spin is random. Why stick to some unrealistic mindset that can make you walk away with your pockets empty, when you can get your head around the idea that slots have random outcomes, and just have fun?

It’s pretty easy though: understand the game odds, decide on a budget in advance, and simply stay mindful.

But if you do catch yourself looking for patterns and making decisions based on them, remember about the gambler’s fallacy and those reckless players who lost hundreds in winnings (there are plenty of stories like this) just because they thought red is due in roulette, and this is one of the possible examples.

Mary Henderson
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